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News
This page includes news on activities related to the Energy Collaborative Analysis Initiative and results of collaborative efforts.
Analysis Activities
Analysis Results
Analysis Activities
Web Forum: Modeling Impacts of Policy Options
May 2008
The Energy Collaborative Analysis Initiative (ECAI) presented its fifth Web forum, "Modeling Impacts of Policy Options," on May 15.
During the forum, presenters discussed how increased attention on reducing oil consumption and greenhouse gas emissions has spurred debate on the relative effectiveness of actions and policy options designed to achieve these goals. The forum focused on the energy-economic modeling tools available to help estimate the future results of actions or policies and discussed the strengths and weaknesses, gaps in coverage, and opportunities for collaboration regarding current modeling tools.
- Skip Laitner, of the American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy (ACEEE), discussed the results of the November 2006 ACEEE workshop on Energy and Economic Policy Models, as well as follow-up items from this event (PowerPoint 859 KB)
- Dan Loughlin, of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), talked about the MARKAL energy-systems model (PowerPoint 3.1 MB)
- James Milford, of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), discussed the Stochastic Energy Deployment Systems (SEDS) model. (PowerPoint 9.3 MB)
The last part of the Web forum was used to discuss the modeling of unexpected technological advances, innovative policies, and consumer behavior in energy markets.
Analysis Results
Some of the following documents in this section are available as Adobe Acrobat PDFs. Download Adobe Reader
Environmental Protection Agency
March 2008
ECAI's Misha Adamantiades, Eric Smith, and Allen Fawcett participated in discussions on the United States Environmental Protection Agency's Analysis of Senate Bill S.2191 (PDF 3.8 MB), the Lieberman-Warner Climate Security Act of 2008, in the 110th Congress. The bill is designed to reduce U.S. emissions of greenhouse gases through the development of a market-driven system of tradable allowances.
Clean Energy States Alliance
June 2008
The Clean Energy States Alliance (CESA), a nonprofit association of state clean energy funds, submitted the proposed CESA Strategic Plan for Year Six (PDF 212 KB). This plan reiterates CESA's mission and benefits, as well as more fully details the proposed joint project work and objectives for the coming year.
CESA has been in operation for five years and, in cooperation with the Clean Energy Group (CEG), is pursuing numerous joint initiatives and projects. The CESA joint projects, client services, information sharing, and other activities are designed to improve the overall effectiveness of the individual member funds as well as advance the interests of the clean energy funds as a whole.
Each year, at the request of CESA members, CESA staff develops a strategic plan for the organization. The plan identifies and describes the following areas: the existing work of the organization, the benefits of the organization to its members, and how the staff proposes to dedicate time and attention to the ongoing work in the coming year. CESA staff has completed the work detailed in the Year 5 Strategic Plan, and staff has prepared a separate deliverables report detailing those activities and efforts.
Energy Information Administration
June 2008
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) has released its analysis of the Lieberman-Warner Climate Security Act. The analysis focuses on the impacts of the greenhouse gas cap-and-trade program established under the bill. The EIA also has released two energy analysis reports for the United States. One focuses on projecting energy demands through 2030 while the other reflects on historical annual energy statistics.
Annual Energy Outlook 2008
The Annual Energy Outlook 2008 (AEO2008) (PDF 3.2 MB) presents projections and analysis of U.S. energy supply, demand, and prices through 2030. The projections are based on results from the Energy Information Administration's National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). The AEO2008 includes the reference case, additional cases examining energy markets, and complete documentation. The analysis in AEO2008 focuses primarily on a reference case and four other cases that assume higher and lower economic growth and higher and lower prices than in the reference case. However, the analysis includes more than 30 alternative cases examining different aspects of energy markets.
Annual Energy Review
The Annual Energy Review (AER) (PDF 8.0 MB) is the Energy Information Administration's primary report of historical annual energy statistics. For many series, data begin with the year 1949. The report covers all major forms of energy (fossil fuels, nuclear, and renewable energy) and total energy by activity (e.g., production, consumption, trade, stocks, and prices). It also includes financial indicators related to energy; international energy; environmental indicators; and data unit conversions. All data are listed in tables and figures.
Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
April-May 2008
Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), in conjunction with NREL and the U.S. Department of Energy, recently released reports on renewable portfolio standards and wind power installation trends in the United States.
Renewables Portfolio Standards
The "Renewables Portfolio Standards in the United States: A Status Report with Data through 2007" (PDF 1.5 MB) report provides a comprehensive overview of early experience with renewables portfolio standards (RPS) in the United States. State-level RPS programs are among the most important drivers for renewable energy deployment in the United States. As their popularity and importance have grown, so too has the need to keep up with the design, early experience, and projected impacts of these RPS programs. This report seeks to fulfill this need by providing basic, factual information on RPS policies. Drawing from a variety of sources, this report—the first in what is envisioned to be an ongoing series—provides comprehensive information on a broad range of RPS-related topics. The report concentrates on key recent developments, while also providing information on historical RPS experience and design.
Annual Report on U.S. Wind Power Installation, Cost, and Performance Trends
The report, "Annual Report on U.S. Wind Power Installation, Cost, and Performance Trends: 2007," (PDF 3.2 MB) provides a comprehensive overview of developments in the rapidly evolving U.S. wind power market. The report indicated that the United States was home to the fastest-growing wind power market in the world in 2007, citing that U.S. wind power capacity increased by 46% in 2007, representing a $9 billion investment in new wind projects. Wind projects accounted for 35% of all new electricity-generating capacity added in the United States in 2007, and more than 200 GW (gigawatts, or billion watts) of wind power are in various stages of development throughout the country. The report concluded that, at this pace, wind is on a path to becoming a significant contributor to the U.S. electrical power mix.
National Renewable Energy Laboratory
April-July 2008
The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) recently released analysis reports on renewable energy communities, solar analysis reports relating to their applications, renewable portfolio standards, economic development, and wind supply curves. An economic-impact estimate model also was released.
Renewable Energy Communities
The NREL report, "A Renewable Energy Community: Key Elements," (PDF 640 KB) assesses the feasibility of developing renewable energy communities. NREL is analyzing how these communities can help Americans overcome a high level of fossil fuel use and ever-increasing dependence on foreign oil. This project focuses on changing the way we design new communities using a renewable energy systems approach—with sustainable planning, net zero-energy homes, advanced vehicles, and innovative utility interconnections.
Developing Wind Supply Curves
The report "A GIS Method for Developing Wind Supply Curves" (PDF 532 KB) describes work conducted by NREL as part of the Wind Technology Partnership sponsored by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. This project has developed methods that the National Development and Reform Commission intends to use in the planning and development of China's 30 GW of planned wind capacity. Because of China's influence within the community of developing countries, the methods and approaches noted in the report may help foster wind development in other countries.
Job and Economic Development Impact Model
NREL has developed several Job and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) models, available for download from the Energy Analysis Web site. The JEDI models are easy-to-use, spreadsheet-based tools that estimate the economic impacts of constructing and operating power generation plants at the state level. First developed to model wind energy development impacts, JEDI recently expanded to offer more technologies. Models have been developed and are now available for download to estimate job and economic impacts from dry mill corn ethanol and concentrating solar power plants. Additional models estimating the jobs and economic impact from other technologies, including coal and natural gas, will be available in early August. The site provides more information about JEDI, as well as free downloads.
Solar Photovoltaic Financing
NREL published the "Solar Photovoltaic Financing: Deployment on Public Property by State and Local Governments" (PDF 1.1 MB) report to examine ways that governments can optimize the financial structure of deploying solar photovoltaic (PV) installations for public use. State and local governments have grown increasingly aware of the economic, environmental, and societal benefits of taking a lead role in U.S. implementation of renewable energy, particularly distributed PV installations. In fact, many state and local governments are considering deployment of solar PV on public-building rooftops, and also large-scale applications on public lands. The report highlighted several themes that emerged during research and analysis regarding deploying PV on public-sector buildings and lands.
Photovoltaics Business Models
NREL produced the "Photovoltaics Business Models" (PDF 1.0 MB) report to summarize previous research to better understand the structure of future photovoltaics business models and the research, development, and demonstration required to support their deployment.
Photovoltaics Value Analysis
The "Photovoltaics Value Analysis" (PDF 1.3 MB) report identifies best practices in methodologies for estimating the value of distributed photovoltaic technologies, identifying gaps in existing knowledge, and outlining research and development opportunities.
Production Cost Modeling for High Levels of Photovoltaics Penetration
To improve understanding of photovoltaic (PV) impacts at the grid level, "Production Cost Modeling for High Levels of Photovoltaics Penetration" (PDF 756 KB) evaluates the likely avoided generation, fuels, and emissions resulting from PV deployment in several U.S. locations and identifies new tools, methods, and analysis.
Rooftop Photovoltaics Market Penetration Scenarios
The "Rooftop Photovoltaics Market Penetration Scenarios" (PDF 3.5 MB) study models the market penetration of rooftop photovoltaics in the United States under a variety of scenarios, on a state-by-state basis, from 2007 to 2015.
Solar Resource Assessment
The "Solar Resource Assessment" (PDF 1.1 MB) report covers the solar resource assessment aspects of the Renewable Systems Interconnection study. The status of solar resource assessment in the United States is described, and summaries of the availability of modeled data sets are provided.
California Energy Commission
April 2008
The California Energy Commission report "Public Interest Energy Research (PIER) Program, Natural Gas — Proposed Program Plan and Funding Request for Fiscal Year 2008-2009" (PDF 1.2 MB) is the budget plan for the PIER Natural Gas Program for the fiscal year 2008-2009. The plan uses the framework of the five-year PIER 2007-2011 Natural Gas Research Investment Plan, which responds to and develops future state policy regarding natural gas issues. It also reflects recent state energy policy guidance from: Senate Bill 76, Assembly Bill 118, Senate Bill 1250, the 2007 Integrated Energy Policy Report, and research and development recommendations from the 2008 Energy Action Plan Update. Developed by the energy commission, the PIER natural gas research 2008-2009 budget plan complements similar annual plans prepared by PIER for electricity research.
EERE's Planning, Analysis, and Evaluation Group
June 2008
The Planning, Analysis, and Evaluation (PAE) group at the Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) released updates for the H2A Hydrogen Production Discounted Cash Flow Model (H2A version 2.0) in the "H2A Production Model, Version 2.0 User Guide." (PDF 1.8 MB)
The H2A Production Model analyzes the technical and economic aspects of central and forecourt hydrogen production technologies. Using a standard discounted cash flow rate of return methodology, it determines the minimum hydrogen selling price (or levelized cost), including a specified after-tax internal rate of return from the production technology. Users have the option of accepting default technology input values—such as capital costs, operating costs, and capacity factor—from established H2A production technology cases or entering custom values. Users can also modify the model's financial inputs.
This new version of the H2A Production Model's usability and functionality has been enhanced by consolidated and simplified input fields and by adding new and updated technology cases. The model's new capabilities include performing sensitivity analyses and scaling analyses to various plant sizes.
Oak Ridge National Laboratory
June 2008
Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) recently released the "Transportation Energy Data Book: Edition 27" (PDF 2.7 MB). Designed as a desk-top reference, the data book includes statistics and other information that characterize transportation activity and/or influence transportation energy use. The data book is used by Transportation Energy Conservation (TEC) staff in their evaluation of current and proposed conservation strategies. The major purposes of the data book were to draw together, under one cover, transportation data from diverse sources, to resolve data conflicts and inconsistencies, and to produce a comprehensive document. In the most recent Department of Energy (DOE) organization, Editions 22 through 27 are under the purview of the Office of Planning, Budget, and Analysis in the Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy.
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